Numbers and the funnel
The 3 numbers to know before you spend on Meta ads
Every decision in an ad account depends on these. Most founders don't have them.
Breaking down the unit economics is the first thing we do with every client, before anything else.
To build solid acquisition, you need to understand the business inside out. Every decision after depends on it: which offer to push, how much to spend, when to kill an ad.
And often, the numbers founders give us on a first call sound better than they really are. So we rebuild them from the store's real data before we plan anything.
1. Profit per order before ads
FormulaAOV − (COGS + shipping + fees + returns)
How much profit you make on each order before paying for ads. This is your break-even CAC: the most you can pay for a customer without losing money on their first order.
2. 90-day LTV (in profit)
FormulaProfit from new customers in their first 90 days ÷ number of new customers
How much profit a customer leaves after reordering. If it's higher than your break-even CAC, you can outbid competitors: lose a little on the first order and still win by day 90.
3. nCAC (new customer CAC)
FormulaTotal ad spend ÷ first-time customers
What each new customer actually costs. It takes returning customers out of the math, because they make ads look better than they are.
Putting them together
Illustrative numbers for a brand spending about $10k a month on Meta:
| Number | Math | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Profit per order | $60 AOV − ($15 COGS + $7 shipping + $2 fees + $3 returns) | $33 break-even CAC |
| 90-day LTV | $12,600 profit from 280 new customers | $45 |
| nCAC | $10,500 spend ÷ 280 first-time customers | $37.50 |
| Reading | Verdict |
|---|---|
| nCAC $37.50 vs. break-even $33 | Losing $4.50 on the first order |
| nCAC $37.50 vs. 90-day LTV $45 | Winning $7.50 per customer by day 90 |
Without all three numbers, this account looks like it's failing. With them, it's working, and you know exactly how far you can push spend.